The Guardian from London, Greater London, England • 16

Byelection paves way for Erdogan to become prime minister and get his chance to prove that Islam and liberal democracy can co-exist Jonny Dymond in Istanbul Turkey's most popular politician, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was elected to parliament yesterday, leaving the road clear for him to become prime minister and allow a possible second vote to let US troops into the country. Mr Erdogan, the chairman of the governing Justice and Development party, won a seat in the eastern province of Siirt, 60 miles from Turkey's border with Iraq, with about 85 of the votes. Mr Erdogan was barred from standing for parliament in the election that his party won in November because of a previous conviction for inciting religious hatred. But once his party took power in parliament, with almost two-thirds of the seats, it changed the constitution, enabling him to stand. The election of Mr Erdogan will end the current power-sharing regime, in which Mr Erdogan has held power without office and been recognised by dozens of world leaders as the effective leader of Turkey, but was unable to take the premiership because of his lack of a seat in parliament It is expected that the cur rent prime minister, Abdullah Gul, will stand down in the next few days.

A reshuffle of top jobs is then likely, with Mr Gul, who attended last year's EU summit in Copenhagen and negotiated with the US over troop deployment, the front-runner for foreign minister. A second vote to let in US troops will be the most pressing issue for Mr Erdogan. The Turkish parliament narrowly rejected the deployment of up to 62,000 troops a week ago. Since then, pressure for a second vote has risen, with a sharp fall in the stock market and a statement from the chief of the Turkish general staff that the influential military supported the US deployment of troops in Turkey. But observers suggest that a vote is several days, and possibly weeks, away.

While Mr Erdogan has left his options open he has expressed a desire for a second UN resolution prior to any troop deployment. And it is thought that a reshuffle and a vote of confidence in the new government may come first Despite the lack of parliamentary authorisation, some US troops have already arrived. Washington has permission from parliament to deploy up to 3,000 personnel to upgrade Turkish ports and airbases. On Saturday, two30-vehicle-strong convoys of Turkish trucks carrying US military equipment left the eastern Mediterranean port of Isken-derun, heading west towards the Iraqi border. An American roll-on roll-off vessel was unloaded early yesterday, under cover of darkness.

US troops have established one base near the city of Mardin, close to the Iraqi border. American troops were also spotted scouting for another site on Saturday. The chairman of parliament, Bulent Arinc, expressed alarm over the US troop movements yesterday, describing them as "de facto jreatguardian.co.ukturkey New breed off islamic politicians start to find tiieir feet Helena Smith in Ankara lurkey's new leaders are working hard. At all hours the lights burn bright at 202 Ceyhun Atif Kansu street, the very modern Ml headquarters of the governing Guardian. "Politicians can be religious, but religion should not establish the basis of politics.

There are 1.5 billion Muslims in the world. Turkey's model will prove to them, and Europe, that Islam and democracy can coexist harmoniously." The party that he founded 18 months ago has also changed, and now vehemently endorses Turkey's bid to join the EU. Mr Erbakan's humiliating removal and the prohibition of his Welfare party in 1998 apparently convinced the AKP that provoking Turkey's "deep state" the military, bureaucracy, media and judicial circles that make up its ruling elite would be political suicide. Instead, Mr Erdogan has adopted western values to ensure the party's long-term survival, and to bring economic and political liberalisation to Turkey. In his time in office, several long-overdue human rights reforms have been made.

"The west is not anathema to the AKP," said Ihsan Dagi, who teaches human rights and Islamic politics at the Middle East Technical University in Ankara. "They have realised that the Kemalist notion of the state which does not leave much space for the political realm and the tremendous power of the army will be eroded with the liberal idea of human rights, democracy and rule that forms the basis of the EU. "What we are seeing are the demands of the EU and pro-Islamic groups in Turkey overlapping for the first time in Turkish history, with Islamic groups finding in the west an ally that can protect them against the excesses of the Kemalist state," added Dr Dagi. Whether the AKP will be able to create a fully democratic country with a Muslim identity an achievement that would have profound effects beyond its borders it is still too early to tell. But there is growing consensus that the party is increasingly coming to terms with its changed identity.

"They are in the process of not only shaping their new identity, but realising the implications of their new language and the capabilities of their new identity to govern Turkey," said Dr Dagi. Turkey was once the seat of the caliphate, which headed the world Muslim community for most of the last millennium. Some analysts now believe that Turkey could fulfil Mr Erdogan's dream of becoming a role model for the Middle East, and forthe Turkic republics of the former Soviet Union. In Arab nations, where much of the population is young and increasingly disenchanted, Turkey's new government could prove that it is possible for Islamists to adopt a new language and identity. "In Saudi Arabia, Libya, Iran and Egypt," said Dr Dagi, "there are people who are very disaffected but can't do much about itontheirown They must somehow work with the forces of globalisation to overcome the political repression and economic backwardness they feel at home.

In many ways the AKP has done just that." Justice and Development party (AKP). When most of the rest of Ankara is asleep, the women in headscarves and men in sharp suits who share this office block are still labouring over computers. This week has been no exception. At a time when matters of state have been dominated by parliament's rejection of a resolution that would have allowed 62,000 US troops to be deployed here a refusal that has put unprecedented strain on relations with America few at the AKP have had a spare moment even to roll out their prayer mats. Four months after it swept to power, the Islamic-leaning government has been assailed by a succession of great tests, of which the Iraq crisis is just one.

It has been forced to confront profound questions about the role of religion in modern democracy; whether the country looks west or east; its relations with Washington and Europe; and human rights. In the constitutionally, avowedly secular Turkey, many still regard the religious-minded ruling party crafted out of the ruins of two Islamist groups previously banned by the army-dominated establishment as distinctly suspicious. But from the AKP's first day in office, both it and its image-conscious leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan previously banned from becoming prime minister, but on course for the office after yesterday's byelection have been under intense scrutiny, at home and abroad. Will Turkey's new rulers transform the The AKP leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan attends Friday prayers at the Hacibayram mosque in Ankara Photograph: Reuters troops has only added to the sense that Turkey's new leaders are both inexperienced and riven with dispute. But the overwhelmingly anti-war population also believe that their parliament's shock vote is the best indicator so far that they have come a long way as a democracy.

Even if they do stand to lose $15bn in American aid, Mr Erdogan is enjoying 68 popularity ratings. The withdrawal of aid now seems increasingly unlikely. On Wednesday, the army voiced unexpected support for the to win a parliamentary majority for 15 years, the AKP has brought the same sense of urgency and determination to its modernising Islamic policies as it has to its handling of the crisis over Iraq. And, so far, the novice politicians, elected mainly from impoverished Anatolia, have shown no signs of harbouring a "hidden agenda" as opponents claim. "Previous Turkish governments only worked under pressure, and if they did anything it was usually cosmetic," said Mensur Akgun, a political science profes 'There are 1.5 biHion Muslims in the world.

Turkey wiSI prove to them that Bslam and democracy Muslim country, as they have pledged, into a thoroughly modern state, so proving that democracy and Islam can coexist, or is the snub to the US proof that they mean to destroy the constitutional divide between mosque and state introduced by the republic's founder, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk? Coalesce or coexist? Few have forgotten how Necmettin Erbakan the founder of political Islam in Turkey and Mr Erdogan's mentor was ousted by the army when he was deemed to have overstepped the mark as prime minister in 1997. The drama over the deployment of US sor at Istanbul's University of Culture. US proposal, raising the prospect that a can co-exist new motion could be soon put to parlia- "This one seems to be very sincere and is beginning to do something different ment by a newly-elevated Mr Erdogan. Most analysts say that, as the first party 'Politicians can be religious, but religion should not establish the basis of politics9 in many of its policies it is more secular than the so-called secular parties." Unlike Mr Erbakan, who looked east as soon as he won office, enraging secularists with visits to Iran and Libya, Mr Erdogan has embraced the west. He toured European Union capitals in the first weeks after the AKP's election victory.

He may have started off as a hardline Islamist, telling his followers that it was impossible "to be a secularist and Muslim at the same but now a day rarely passes without him publicly distancing himself, professionally, from his religion. "We did not establish our party as a party based on religion," he told the More at guardian.co.ukturkey reader ffer TfoeGu araian ma iTrn iif i if in inbi tmiii i Hi fMiir nm wvi liiim irTiummmiir fii Ttarir irr rmirji -inr nrriii tAtj it imxl ibjww npk wrm arm wi i wviwu wbmwwn -isf? -res- ix danceof death i Tl heat re breaks Feather Down Duvets plus FREE duck feather pillows, from just 49.99 inc UK goodbye to that sad old duvet and treat yourself to one rhese great value quilts you'll get two free pillows with a gle duvet and four free pillows with a double, king or superking. Cosy and long-lasting, this 13.5 tog duvet is filled with natural duck feather and down which is superior to any synthetic fibre as it naturally 'breathes' and drapes around your body making sure you get a good night's sleep. Free guide to the 2003 Isa season with this month's Money Observer You can purchase Isas 2003 for just 2.50 (using the coupon below), or get it free with the March issue of Money Observer, available in all good newsagents. Call 0870 066 7832 quote GR0381 Isas 2003 is a 24 page guide containing a wealth of information to help you navigate your way through the Isa minefield.

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