The Guardian from London, Greater London, England • 4

THE GUARDIAN Monday August 26 1991 4 AFTER SOVIET COMMUNISMWORLD REACTS Beijing sorry coup failed ouew irdleir OJS sees ipeirnD or that he's totally reduced in power and will not again rise to a position of strength," the deputy secretary of state, Law John CUttlngs the one they used in Tiananmen Square an army and party which still obey orders. The news from the Soviet Union will have a significant counter-effect Not only was there no Tiananmen in Red Square, but the world's first Communist Party has been swiftly reduced to impotence. This lesson will be felt deep within the Chinese party and armed forces, where formal acceptance of the leadership's authority has masked serious disquiet Outside it will be easily grasped by many ordinary Chinese, who were left confused by the various eastern European revolutions. Beijing appears to have no theoretical explanation for the changes in the Soviet Union and eastern Europe, other than to insist China remain on the right path. On Friday, the official People's Daily asserted once again that socialism would replace the capitalist system, and eventually "unite the It suggested that China would have to face further hardships and upheavals in defence of the cause.

"Those to whom Heaven has given a great task must suffer greatly to accomplish it," it said, quoting a disciple of Confucius. The differences between Tiananmen Square, June 1989, and Red Square, August 1991, are substantial. The existence of an elected Russian president and parliament had no parallel in China. The municipal government of Beijing was con Martin Watker in WMMnyton SENSE of caution is gripping the Bush administration as it i views the longer-term implications of the collapse of the old soviet regime, rne initial euphoria has faded fast, as President Bush's advisers have reminded him that the non-communist Russia of the 19th century proved an expansionist power and a prickly neighbour. And while there is nothing but praise for the courage and leadership of Boris Yeltsin, and the White House now recognises that he is the decisive figure for the next stage, the longstanding suspicion of his impulsiveness and demagogu-cry has not yet been wholly laid to rest.

So even as the administration is hailing the defeat of communism and the imminent independence of the Baltics, it is still waiting nervously to see whether a stable and pluralist democracy emerges. The Secretary of State, James Baker, said that he expected to be in Moscow on September 10, to attend the long-scheduled human rights conference, and hoped then to see Mr Gorbachev and Mr Yeltsin. "We still do not know exactly where economic power resides," Mr Baker said yesterday. "The extraordinary events over the past week present an opportunity to pursue an expanded agenda with the Soviet Union, an agenda that is centred on reform." Agreements would be needed between republican leaders and the centre to determine what their respective powers are, Mr Baker told ABC television. "That's going to be needed, frankly, before there can be meaningful Western investment." State Department and National Security Council staff spent the weekend putting together new policy recommendations whose gist was that the US should seek to promote democratic institutions and a stabilising legal framework.

They assume that this week Mr Yeltsin will seek to implement his sweeping demands, made in March of this year, to limit the authority of the Soviet President to the four areas of national defence, communications, transport, and energy policy. Sources among these policymakers stopped short of suggesting that Mr Yeltsin was assuming quasi-dictatorial powers, but privately welcomed a continuing role for President Gorbachev as a restraining influence in a situation that could still spiral out of control. "I think what we have to be very careful of is to assume that Gorbachev is now odd man out, tM mm wi'jfmm -sue i Honouring the dead A Muscovite lights candles for coup victims at an Orthodox church photograph: aleksandh zemuanichenko Disintegration throws West into tturnnoil Fears of Soviet economic collapse and military chaos now haunt world long-term instability grows, Hella Pick writes rence Eagleburger, said vesterdav. "It is far too early to make that judgment. I think what is going to be the real test is if Mr Gorbachev grabs hold of the reform process and moves it forward.

"If he does, I think he could be back in stature again, equal to that of Mr Yeltsin." There was some relief in Washington when Sergei Stan- kevich, the deputy mayor of Moscow, made a statement about the need to act legally, and at the caution with which some of the republics viewed Mr Yeltsin's new role. Mr Stankevich had said in an interview with CNN television on Saturday: "We tried to save our democracy not in order to change one form of illegal action for another form of illegal action. It is very important to preserve our constitutional order President Yeltsin's activity, his new strength, can provoke cautiousness from other republican leaders." Brent Scowcroft, President Bush's national security adviser and one of those who views Mr Yeltsin with some reserve, said yesterday that the US was waiting to see what emerged from today's Supreme Soviet. The potential for ethnic unrest within the various republics, as well as the chaotic economy, is a focus of serious concern. "They are still well short of the set ot circumstances economically where we can do more than we already have," the Secretary ot Defence, Kicn- ard Cheney long a sceptic on the Soviet reform process told NBC television.

President Bush has deliber ately kept out of the limelight over the weekend, as the tumultuous anti-communist revolution swept along, expressing lit tle more than guarded satisfaction that events "appear to be working in the favour of the United However, a former assistant secretary of state, Rozanne Ridewav, warned that the eth nic problems inside the individual republics could yet lead to the kind of violence which has struck Yugoslavia. "When we get to real eco nomic reforms, there will be the displacement of millions of people, even beyond what we have witnessed in eastern Ger- there was a sort of safety net. And there are na tionality problems throughout the Soviet union. "I would be sad. but would not be surprisedto see some of Ms Ridewav said.

The consensus within the US foreign policy establishment is that the real problems for the Soviet Union have only just begun. things in different ways, Mr Hurd said. "The new pattern will take some days and weeks to find its shape. There will be trial and error. It's no reason for us in the West to be panicky about that." Mr Major has convened a meeting of officials of the G7 leadmg industrialised nations for Thursday in London at which they will have to decide whether any further aid should be negotiated directly with the republics or through the centre.

Mr Major again appeared to rule out large-scale grants except for technical assistance and emergency winter food aid saying: "They do not have the proper technology to maxi mise their assets to the full. That is more important than loads of money." Any other aid, he said, would be linked to the honouring of existing disarmament commitments, an end to repression, further cuts in Soviet defence spending, political reform, and moves towards a market economy. Mr Hurd, however, did predict that the International Mon etary Fund and the World Bank would grant full membership, rather than associate status, to the Soviet Union, thereby giving access to funds. Both the Labour leader, Neil Kinnock, and the Liberal Demo crats pressed the British gov ernment to give more than technical assistance to rebuild the economy and suggested the republics would need a central co-ordinating body to help with that economic restructuring. Mr Kinnock said: "There may be a significant role for Gorbachev in trying to provide cohesion, in terms of international relations, through further dis armament talks and co-ordinating and focusing any business plan for the country.

I have never suggested we should give them a bucket of cash. The argument I have put is that we should help with transport, telecommunications and properly harvesting their huge natural resources, and to help them in the convertibility of the rouble." Tl HE Chinese democratic movement has been waiting since the Beijing massacre for "some thing to The event it had in mind was the death of Deng Xiaoping or one of the other veteran communist leaders who sent the troops to Tiananmen Square. But the downfall of the Soviet party the historical model for the one which still rules China is likely to sharpen the contradictions instead. The latest news from Moscow is being widely discussed in Beijing by ordinary citizens who have remained silent since their barricades were smashed in June 1989. Only the barest account has been published in the official press, but the news is being gleaned from Taiwan and Western radio broadcasts.

Vice-President Wang Zhen, one of the small group of aged party leaders who sent the army into Tiananmen Square, called for the defence of "socialist unity" in China yesterday. He referred particularly to the vast north-west region of Xinjiang, bordering on the Soviet Union, where he urged the "army and people of all nationalities" to rally round the Communist Party's leadership. He recalled that anti-government riots by local Muslims were suppressed two years ago. The first news ot the soviet coup was reported in Beijing with an alacrity indicating official approval. Its tauure has oeen com mented on defensively by the Chinese party secretary-general, Jiang Zemin.

The choice of a country's social system and ideology, he said on Saturday, is "up to its own No foreign nation should interfere and "no country should impose its ideology on Mr Deng and his colleagues relied heavily on the confusion caused by Soviet perestroika during the past year to argue that political reform only led to and that what mattered most was the provision of food in the shops. A successful conservative coup against Mr Gorbachev would have clinched their case psychologically. For the ultimate weapon of the hardliners in Beijing is under the control of national governments. Will there still be Soviet armed forces at all? The Soviet Union has naval bases in the Baltics and their future will now have to be negotiated. President Gorbachev is at present without a foreign min ister, but even when a successor to Aleksandr Bessmertnykh is found, Soviet influence on the management of international affairs may be sharply diminished.

Even though the Soviet Union will retain its seat as one of the five permanent members of the Security Council for as long as it survives as an entity, the long shadow of the Russian Federation's influence is certain to make itself felt on the international scene. It is possible that such a situation could help rather than hinder the construction of a more stable international order in the wake of the new Soviet revolution. But the Soviet President, whether Mikhail Gorbachev or another, will cease to be the dominant influence. Mr Yeltsin is certain to be more influential. The West may have to learn how to come to terms with a superpower whose nominal leader has become a political pygmy.

under 10 per cent. The party has 25 seats in the 577-seat parliament but could be virtually wiped out in the next elections. In the eastern Paris suburb of Montreuil one of the few remaining communist strongholds in France L'Humanite buyers were in grim mood. Asked for his reaction to Mr Gorbachev's resignation as head of the Soviet Communist Party, one reader said: "I would say disappointment, because socialism is such a lofty ideal." As in Moscow, the French party has internal divisions which are threatening to tear it apart. Reformers within the party have attacked Mr Marchais's response to the attempted coup last week.

Mr Marchais initially condemned the methods used by hardliners to oust Mr Gorbachev, but then launched a scathing attack on the Soviet President's programme of reforms. He described Mr Yeltsin as "arrogant and intolerant" and said he felt closer to Mr Gorbachev, who had said he would stay a communist. Mr Marchais made his remarks before Mr Gorbachev resigned as general secretary of the Soviet Communist Party. Major hopes that centre will hold nuclear arsenals, and whether President Gorbachev still has sole authority over the black box that can detonate nuclear war. While most of the land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles are believed already to have been moved, during the past few months, on to the territory of the Russian Federation and away from what appeared We may have to learn to live with a superpower whose leader has become a political pygmy to be more sensitive republics, some missiles are also deployed in secessionist Ukraine.

Who will own these missiles? And is there a risk, however remote, of nuclear proliferation among the Soviet republics? If the Soviet Union's nuclear arsenals pose the most urgent questions, future control of its conventional forces must also be of deep concern to Nato. Perhaps they will become militia capitals as the threat of Ti I HE three Baltic countries, making dramatic progress towards diplomatic recognition, are already virtually assured of membership of the United Nations when the general assembly convenes in three weeks' time. Lithuania, Latvia, and Esto nia will also be able to achieve their longstanding ambition to become full members of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe. They will no longer have to be camouflaged as unofficial observers within the CSCE delegations of friendly Scandinavian countries. For the international commu nity, the integration of the Baltic countries into the multinational institutions is the easiest aspect of coming to terms with the break-up of the Soviet Union.

The West never acknowl edged the legal validity of Stalin's annexation of the Baltic countries, although in practice there was no alternative but to accept it. It will not be so straight trolled by a vicious mixture of conservatives and ultra-left ideologues. There was no hint in the Chinese army of the dem ocratic officers' movement which has emerged in the Soviet forces. Public opinion is less politi cised outside Beijing and a few other big cities than in the Soviet republics. But foreign news does circulate widely and increasing numbers of students and officials now travel abroad.

Exiled Chinese democrats be lieve that China's secretive political culture conceals layers of informal opposition within uie party and the armed forces. They have a prudent desire to wait until "the moment is ripe Events in the Soviet Union should help the Chinese challenge to mature earlier than seemed likely after Tiananmen Square. Foreign TV was one-sided, says Leningrad journalist 1 Georojnn Henry HE presenter of a leading Soviet television current affairs programme has accused Western broadcasters of distorting their coverage of the failed coup. Aleksandr Nevzorov, presenter of 600 Seconds on Leningrad Television, told broadcasters at the Edinburgh television festival that "99 per cent of foreign journalists were only in touch with people from the democratic Mr Nevzorov added: "I have found it funny watching your television coverage. Although it is very well done, and you have noble in- tendons, I find it is only showing half of the picture and not the most characteristic part." He said he feared that now the democrats were in the ascendancy, journalistic freedoms introduced under glasnost would be as threatened as they were under the communists.

"Journalists are now obsessed with their political views and which side of the barricades they stood on," he said. Mr Nevzorov is a controversial figure in the Soviet Union. He outraged many viewers earlier this year by making a film supportive of the crackdown in Lithuania. He caused further contro versy at the festival with his views on what he referred to as the "so-called He was attacked by Gallna Starovoitova, Boris Yeltsin's adviser, who had initially refused to share a platform with him. She said she believed that all viewpoints would be allowed to be ex pressed in the new Soviet Union.

"But it depends on whether those views are legal or not," she said. "The Communist Party is now illegal in many places." She said she was grateful to the Western media for "preserving Actors Anthony Hopkins and Albert Finney were named as possible candidates for the roles of Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin yesterday in a 1.5 million Channel 4 documentary on the coup attempt The programme, with the working title A Very Soviet Coup, will be made by Granada TV, said Channel 4 chief executive Michael Grade. Rival British parties split on Painful blow to French faithful as Marchais rethinks strategy covers the whole of the Soviet Union's territory? Boris Yeltsin and the Russian Federation government will almost certainly now want to become involved in the ratification and implementation of the START and CFE treaties, covering reductions in nuclear arms and the withdrawal of conventional forces from territory west of the Urals. It is too soon to judge how far the Soviet Union will be carved up; whether a loose confederation, still calling itself the Soviet Union, will survive, or if the Russian Federation will supplant it altogether. And we do not know if Russia will be able to survive within its present borders.

But the taking over by the Russian Federation of the Soviet security apparatus within its territory already points to a growing ambiguity over who is responsible at the nerve centre of a nuclear superpower. The Nato allies will want to know urgently who holds effective control over the Soviet dictatorial rule. That is now the real danger." His warnings were echoed by Mike Hicks, general secretary of the Communist Party of Britain, which broke away to support the Morning Star line. He accused Mr Yeltsin of "unconstitutional and said he now feared dictatorship in the Soviet Union. "Yeltsin is a demagogue and a populist and is quite capable of going in that direction.

But as far as we're concerned the fight does go on in Britain and the working class will need us more than ever, as the working class of the Soviet Union will need a party of Marxism more than ever." The official party, the Communist Party of Great Britain, is expected to change its name to the "Democratic Left" at its November congress, as the last stage in distancing itself from what it now disparagingly calls the the Bolshevik tradition. The party's leadership has taken a radical line throughout the Soviet crisis, supporting Gorbachev but urging him to go further. forward when the Ukraine, Byelorussia and other Soviet republics press for diplomatic recognition. How far and how fast should the international community back the disintegration of the Soviet Union, especially if the G7 group of leading industrialised countries decides to expand economic aid to the Soviet Union? The West will not only demand economic reform and a free market Political and economic structures to handle an inflow of capital and technology are equally important. But there is more at stake for the international community than the transfer of economic largesse to the Soviet Union.

Worldwide euphoria over the collapse of the Soviet communist system is obscuring far-reaching questions about Soviet treaty commitments and the future of its military forces, particularly its nuclear arsenals. Who will ensure compliance with existing arms treaties, such as the 1962 Anti Ballistic Missile Accord which If she had any criticism of Mr Gorbachev, it was that he had not moved fast enough. It was obvious any democratic transformation of the Communist Party would have to involve breaking its monopoly on state power and, despite bis vision in initiating glasnost and pers troika, he had failed to take that vital step when required. But Tony Chater, editor of the Morning Star, condemns the "counter-coup" in today's editorial, and the take-over by Boris Yeltsin and his "right "The anti-communist witchhunt now in full swing is intended to consolidate the position of the right radicals and separatists. It has nothing to do with democracy.

"Certainly, those individuals who actively supported the coup should be dealt with under the law. But that cannot include action against the Communist Party itself. "To support that would be to embrace collective punishment and guilt by association, violating legal norms and opening the road to arbitrary Gorbachev dissolution call Patrick Wintour Political Correspondent rapfeRlTISH concern at the I prospect of the dismetn UeVberment of the Soviet Union was underscored yesterday when John Major warned against writing off President Gorbachev, saying he still had a very important role to play as the constitutional head of state. British fears for the stability of East-West relations were also highlighted by the Foreign Secretary, Douglas Hurd, who said the West "desperately needed to know" if defence and foreign relations would remain the preserve of the centre. Labour and the Liberal Democrats gave voice to concern that disarmament treaties would be impossible to negotiate or honour if the Soviet Union slid into chaos with 15 autonomous republics.

Mr Major acknowledged that British diplomatic relations would have to be adjusted to take account of the rise of the republics, but said he did not foresee Mr Gorbachev and the centre lacking a role. Saying he looked forward to doing business with Mr Gorbachev, as well as Mr Yeltsin, Mr Major went out of his way to pour praise on the Soviet leader for his contribution over the last seven years and for his decision to dismantle the Communist Party. He said: "The party has lost any affection it might ever have had from the people of the Soviet Union and they will be pleased to see the back of it. "Mr Gorbachev has acknowledged that and acted upon it He was brave but he was right to do so." Mr Hurd also urged caution: "We need to know who is going to be running the foreign policy and who will be in charge with the army and nuclear forces. It's not going to be easy to divide the Soviet Union" into tidy republics.

Different republics would do Renter In Paris FRENCH communists struggled yesterday to conceal bitter disappointment at the apparent demise of the Soviet Communist Party, a model they have followed faithfully. "I'm sick. We've been fighting for so long and now they tell us we can't be communists any more. Why shouldn't we carry the hammer and sickle? It's our emblem," said Maggie, selling the communist newspaper L'Humanite. Maggie, a member of the party for 38 years, is one of a dwindling band of supporters of the veteran party leader, Georges Marchais.

Mr Marchais's support for Stalinist policies in Moscow in the 1970s and 1980s, his grudging support for Mikhail Gorbachev's reform programme, and now his outright opposition to the Russian president Boris Yeltsin, has reduced support for the party. France's biggest single party after the second world war, the communists held several ministerial posts in the 1980s, but polls show support is now iiasHiiiimilMij Martin Linton HE split among Britain's communists could not have been wider yester day when the official party welcomed President Gorbachev's moves against the Soviet Communist Party, while the hardline Morning Star railed against the "counter-coup" and the "anti- communist According to the Commu nist Party secretary, Nina Temple, Mr Gorbachev's resignation as general secretary was "an essential act in completing the victory of demo cratic forces over the conservatives who had been behind Monday's coup." The Soviet Communist Party was "deeply implicated" in the coup and was now "totally She advised its progressive members to Join new parties which could contribute to a pluralistic political culture In the Soviet Union..